Future of Finance

Fed Rate Expectations Flip From Cuts to Potential Hikes

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Markets now price a 10% chance of Fed rate hikes in April, reversing from expectations of 2-3 cuts at year-start to zero cuts currently. The dramatic shift follows a 50 basis point surge in 2-year Treasury yields over three weeks, driven by elevated inflation data and Middle East energy price pressures.

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This represents a fundamental pivot in monetary policy expectations that will reshape asset allocation strategies and borrowing costs across all sectors.

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